By Isle of Wight Observer
In the three years before we voted to leave the EU, nett migration totalled 836,000 people. In the three years after we voted leave, it more than doubled to 1.9 million. On Tuesday, 882 people fled Calais by dinghy and landed in Dover. Is this the immigration election? If so, who would you trust to sort it out?
The Tories know how people feel about immigration – that’s partially why ‘call me Dave’ offered us a referendum. He believed that when push came to shove, we’d vote to stay. Cameron asked us what we wanted, and, when we told him, he threw a hissy fit. He walked off and the Tories tried to ignore the result. Pundits say turnout on July 4 could be low, and the failure to control legal and illegal immigration is partly responsible. Democracy is always inconvenient for politicians; they’d scrap it if they could. At this election, despite the 48 per cent who voted to remain, there’s no ‘rejoin the EU’ party – even the Lib-Dems don’t want to talk about it.
I couldn’t believe it this week when I saw Rishi campaigning for Geoffrey Cox. The shameless MP barrister, turned Attorney General, spent much of lockdown living it up in the Caribbean, even voting from there while earning a fortune in legal fees – his client accused HMRC and the UK government of Covid corruption!
Whenever we perceive injustice or feel ignored, the electorate either gets angry, or becomes apathetic. Loyal Tories tell me they will vote Reform this time – to punish the self-enriching condescending Conservatives. It feels a bit like 1992, when normally housebound oldies staggered from their sick beds, determined to stop Neil Kinnock. Back then Labour was so confident of victory, they held the infamous Sheffield Rally. To everyone’s amazement, when the votes were counted, boring John Major had won; oh yes!
Some polls now show Nigel Farage and Reform ahead of the Conservatives. I don’t fear a Labour victory, but I’m fairly certain that, like the Tories, they won’t stop the boats. This election isn’t won yet, but it does look lost, although Kier Starmer shouldn’t count his chickens. If a week is a long time in politics, you never know what miracle might happen in two.
Here, Richard Quigley is evidently doing well, while Bob Seely is clearly under pressure. Before we even started last week’s IW Observer/Island Echo hustings, Bob was visibly apprehensive. Once we got underway, I couldn’t decide if even he really believed the rubbish he was spouting. He oozed entitlement while doggedly sticking to his preposterous list of so-called ‘achievements.’ He rarely mentioned his party; it seemed to be all about him. As ever, Russia got a shout-out – when doesn’t it? Somebody at another West Wight hustings told me Bob was late arriving, tetchy, dismissive and arrogant. He spoke at 100 mph and left immediately afterwards. All the other candidates happily stayed for coffee and chat.
I think Joe Robertson will probably win in the East, but if half -a-sausage Bob does manage to hold on in the West he must be dreaming of becoming shadow Foreign Secretary. Despite an evident lack of talent available, four Prime Ministers have completely overlooked him. I reckon post-election he’s praying for a new party leader. Perhaps Penny Mordaunt could give him a little crumb from her table, only because Bob might be among a tiny number of Tories who get back in. Poor Penny would have very few MPs to choose from, and Bob did back her in a previous leadership election. But to do that she’d have to hold on to her own seat – which looks far from certain.
The Tories could be in opposition well past Bob’s retirement age. His dismal political career, such as it ever was, already looks to be over.